Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Vicor Corporation (NASDAQ:VICR), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$84m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.06 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Vicor is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Vicor after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Vicor

After the latest results, the consensus from Vicor's three analysts is for revenues of US$333.9m in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 15% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 61% to US$0.39 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$352.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2024. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a very substantial lift in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

The analysts have cut their price target 11% to US$36.50per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the expected improvement in earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Vicor analyst has a price target of US$38.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Vicor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Vicor's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Vicor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.